(1993 - 2007)  The First Boom

Population:

• 1990 - 20k
• 2000- 52k 
• 2007 - 75k 

3.5x the population in 17 years

Prominent Neighborhoods built then:

• Northwest Crossing (486 acres) (Brooks Resources (Mike Hollern) & Tennant Developments)
• Southwest Bend
• Century West
• River West/Southern Crossing
• Summit West
• Broken Top Resort

Workforce Makeup

1. Construction (20%)

2. Tourism, Hospitality & Service Work 

4-5% unemployment

Median Home price peak - $420k

(2008-2011) - The Bust

Stories of people with 3 homes losing it all and having to move into government housing

Hardest hit market per capita in the US

Construction Stalled

2007 -4-5% unemployment

2009 - 16-17% unemployment

Median home price $260k (down from $420k, 38% drop)

25-30% drop nationally

2012 - 2020 - The Steady Rebuild

2012 Median $260k

2012 unemployment - 10-11%

2019 Unemployment - 4%

2020 Median $450k 

70% growth over 8 years 

This time it's different

Growth was diversified

Less construction dependent

More service, healthcare, tourism, and remote work

Credit was stricter.

2020 - 2023 - Covid Remote Work Boom

 The Rise of the Creative Class—whose premise Hollern quickly embraced. The author best summarizes his thesis as, “Access to talented and creative people is to modern business what access to coal and iron ore was to steel-making. It determines where companies will choose to locate and grow …”

Median Home Prices

2020 - $450k

2022 - $800k

Low interest rates - 2.75%

Quantitative Easing - 3.25%

75% Price Growth in 24 months

Faster than 2000s boom, but with very different buyers.

Inventory incredible tight

Any house with a pulse would sell w/ multiple offers.

(2023-2025) The Slowdown

People showing up from the high money markets of the west coast, los angeles

California

Seattle 

Bay Area

Cash Equity

High Remote income

That brings us to today, and to fully understand this year, we need to look a little further out on the horizon. So let's look at the next 10 years.

(2027-2037) The NEXT 10 YEARS

LET’S TALK THE NEXT 10 YEARS and then WE CAN WORK BACKWARDS to 2026.

First and Foremost -POPULATION GROWTH

“Whenever you buy an Asset, it’s less important if you’re buying at the absolute bottom and more important that it has future growth potential. In short, do not buy real estate in areas of declining population. Do buy real estate in places that are growing and especially in places that have an urban growth boundary because infinite sprawl doesn’t guarantee price appreciation the way an urban growth boundary does. The more people that move into a finite circle, the more expensive that piece of dirt is going to be.

So, CURRENT POPULATION - 107,000 as of 2026

PROJECTED POPULATION in 2035 - 132,000

A total add of 25,000 people. 25% increase over 10 years. (Don’t you love round numbers?)

And basically 2,500 people moving here every single year.

Now let’s talk about the three demographics of Home Owners here in Bend

Note - this is homeowners, there plenty of other people here, but because we’re talking about the housing market, we’re just sticking to homeowners.

Lifestyle Retirees and Second homers - People moving here from more affluent markets, ready to cash in a great quality of life

 CURRENT % - 17.4%

 PROJECTED FUTURE PERCENTAGE - 30-35%

Remote Workers -  who have survived the “AI Thinning”

 Founders

 Senior Engineers

 Product Leaders

 Consultants

 Sales & Relationship Driven roles

 CURRENT - 27% (#9 in the country)

 PROJECTED 2035 - 30-40%

Location Bound Workers (The Trades)

 Healthcare

 The Trades

 Service

 Manufacturing

 Local Government

 CURRENT - 55%

 PROJECTED - 35%

Why this is bullish for a place like Bend

Bend doesn’t rely on:

 Entry level remote jobs

 Mass corporate relocations

And, because of the lifestyle Bend attracts

 High Agency individuals - People move here with intention

 Business Owners

 Tech Adjacent Professionals

 Equity Rich Movers

But I should caveat to say, the real threat to Bend’s remote work workforce is not AI as much as it is, the following:

Heavy remote-worker taxation - Looking at you, the State of Oregon

Forced Return to office mandates - AI gets to work remotely in the server farms in the deserts of Oregon, why shouldn’t we?

Long Term energy or Travel constraints - and with Redmond doing the big airport expansion  on th

7 new air bridges

Routes that are projected to expand:

 San Diego

 Orange County

 Burbank

 Hubs like Phoenix and Denver

 Dallas Fort Worth

MEDIAN INCOME

HOUSING SUPPLY

-Less demand and economic caution

-high mortgage rate suppress buyer demand

Weakened demand from higher interest rates

HOUSING PRODUCTION

New housing starts are trending down (show chart)

Give me the numbers of housing starts over the last 5 years.

Depending on the macros of global conflict

WEST SIDE VS EAST SIDE

WEST SIDE

EAST SIDE

THE OUTLYING AREAS

TUMALO RANCHES

SISTERS

REDMOND

LA PINE

PRINEVILLE

BROAD MARKET

INTEREST RATE TRAJECTORY DOWN

FACTOR #1 - $200B billion purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities From Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reserves which drives the price of MBS up

When bond prices go up, their yields (the interest rates) go down.

Mortgage rates are tied directly to MBS yields - so mortgage rates fall.

So, when $200 B of MBS are purchased, it overwhelms supply, prices of MBSs rise quickly, and yields fall

And, the big question, when will this occur? In short, no word yet, but when the headline hit the newstands a few days ago, interest rates a crossed below 5.99% for the first time in 3 years.

FACTOR #2 - NEW FED CHAIRMAN

May 15, 2026 - Jerome Powell’s term ends

Powell’s chair term ends in May 2026 - if he’s replaced with someone more growth-focused, mortgage rates could ease, and as always these changes/predictions are priced in months before the actual change.

LAEL BRAINARD is the most likely replacement who is known to be more dovish which equates to easing interest rates

FACTOR #3 - GLOBAL CONFLICT

Being an economic military industrial country, we’re tooled up for war, and with the looming conflict in Iran, and the Department of War’s budget being increased from $1T to $1.5T, for better or worse, this is a lot of money being pumped into arms and resources in the US.

And of course, if/when there is a war with Iran, it would tighten the oil supply dramatically which fuels our economy,. There’s the old maxim that the US can’t operate on oil prices over $100/barrel. Fore reference, oil is currently at $60/barrel.

So, if the oil dries up from Iran, we would be in trouble,

BUTTTT the US has just secured the largest reserves of oil in the world via Venezuela.

We’re not looking at this through the moral lens, we can do that when you come visit over a beer or a kombucha, but instead we’re just looking at how this affects the broad market and ultimately the little baby bougie market here in Bend.

Okay, so net result this year

My guess is interest prices in the mid 5’s by the Fall. But who knows. 

And again, take this with a grain of salt. And certainly refer to this in October and tell me how wrong I am. This is JUST A GUESS.

LOCAL MARKET

INTEREST RATES DRIVE THE MARKET - 5.5%-6% range

Rates just dropped below 6% and the phones are ringing. My colleagues in the mortgage industry are feeling it. I’m calling them saying I have a client who needs to make something happen asap

So, then if we take our interest rate hypothesis here to Bend of in the high 5’s (currently the highest 5’s 5.99) we’re going to see the market heat up.

In fact, it’s only the second week of January and the market has noticably heated up.

I’m seeing good houses sell within a week or two.

Certainly multiple offers for the hot houses and quite frankly the phones are ringing and people are ready to buy. I think by March/April it’s going to get really busy.